If you are weighing a National Interest Waiver petition, the first question is usually the same: what are the odds? The honest answer has changed a great deal in the last few years. Approval rates that once sat above 90% have dropped to roughly half, and the quarterly numbers have been moving in both directions.

I'm David Keller. Below I walk through the most recent USCIS figures, what may be behind them, and, more usefully, what they do and do not tell you about your own petition.

In the third quarter of FY 2026 (April through June 2026), USCIS decided 6,938 EB-2 NIW petitions on Form I-140. It approved 3,835 and denied 3,103, which works out to 55.3%. Taking the first three quarters of FY 2026 together, USCIS decided 18,823 petitions and approved 9,238, a cumulative rate of 49.1%.

The quarter-by-quarter picture shows how volatile the last two years have been:

Quarter	Decided	Approved	Denied	Approval Rate
FY 2026 Q3	6,938	3,835	3,103	55.3%
FY 2026 Q2	6,320	3,038	3,282	48.1%
FY 2026 Q1	5,565	2,365	3,200	42.5%
FY 2025 Q4	8,324	2,968	5,356	35.7%
FY 2025 Q3	9,801	5,290	4,511	54.0%
FY 2025 Q2	9,797	6,591	3,206	67.3%
FY 2025 Q1	7,473	4,683	2,790	62.7%
FY 2024 Q4	8,823	5,396	3,427	61.2%

Figures are drawn from USCIS's published I-140 data. Check the USCIS immigration and citizenship data page for the latest release.

Zoom out and the direction is clearer. In FY 2022, USCIS approved nearly every NIW petition it decided. Each year since, a larger share has been denied, even as filings have grown.

Fiscal Year	Petitions Received	Approved	Denied	Approval Rate
FY 2026 (Q1–Q3)	40,363	9,238	9,585	49.1%
FY 2025	66,276	19,532	15,863	55.2%
FY 2024	63,549	27,526	11,256	71.0%
FY 2023	39,803	31,889	8,172	79.6%
FY 2022	21,973	10,316	468	95.7%

USCIS has not published an explanation, so anyone who gives you a single cause is guessing. Two developments are worth keeping in mind, though the data alone cannot prove they are responsible:

• Tighter adjudication. USCIS revised its National Interest Waiver guidance in 2022 and again in January 2025, with more detail on what counts as national importance and what evidence it expects (see the USCIS Policy Manual, Vol. 6, Part F, Ch. 5).
• A much larger pool. Filings roughly tripled between FY 2022 and FY 2025. More petitions, and a wider range of petition quality, can move an overall rate on its own.

The legal test itself has not changed. Under Matter of Dhanasar, you must first be an advanced-degree professional or a person of exceptional ability. Then you show that (1) your proposed endeavor has substantial merit and national importance, (2) you are well positioned to advance it, and (3) on balance, waiving the job offer and labor certification benefits the United States.

Many applicants ask whether EB-1A is the safer route. The recent data does not show a consistent winner. EB-1A's rate was higher through FY 2025, but since the second quarter of FY 2026 the NIW rate has been the higher of the two.

Period	EB-2 NIW	EB-1A
FY 2026 Q3	55.3%	32.2%
FY 2026 Q2	48.1%	41.8%
FY 2026 Q1	42.5%	47.5%
FY 2025 (full year)	55.2%	66.9%

The two categories ask for different things, so the right choice depends on your record, not on which line is higher this quarter. We compare them in more depth in our EB-1 guide.

NIW filings reached 63,549 in FY 2024 and 66,276 in FY 2025. Over the same stretch, the number of pending NIW petitions climbed from 74,392 to 96,297 by June 30, 2026. A bigger queue is one reason standard processing now runs around 30 months. For a closer look at that timeline, read our November 2026 NIW processing time update.

USCIS does not publish approval rates by country, so any claim that applicants from one country are approved more often is unsupported. What the data does show is volume. In the third quarter of FY 2026, China and India led in both petitions received and petitions approved.

Where country matters a great deal is after approval. The Visa Bulletin sets separate EB-2 cutoff dates by country of birth, so two people with identical approvals can wait very different lengths of time for a green card. Recent final action dates were November 1, 2013 for India, October 1, 2021 for mainland China, and April 1, 2025 for most other countries. Always confirm the current month in the State Department Visa Bulletin.

A 55% national rate does not mean your petition has a 55% chance. Two applicants can file in the same quarter and land at opposite ends of the range. In my experience, petitions are most often denied for a few recurring reasons:

• The endeavor is described so broadly that national importance is never shown.
• The benefit stays within one employer, one client base, or one region.
• The petitioner's track record does not show they can actually carry the work forward.
• Claims are made without independent documents to support them.

A Request for Evidence (RFE) is not a denial. It is USCIS asking for more proof, and a thorough response can turn a case around. USCIS does not publish approval rates after an RFE, so be wary of anyone quoting one.

What is the current EB-2 NIW approval rate?
55.3% for the third quarter of FY 2026, up from a low of 35.7% in the fourth quarter of FY 2025.

Is that my personal chance of approval?
No. It is a national average across all petitioners. Each case is judged on its own evidence.

Does an RFE mean my case is failing?
No. It means the officer wants more information before deciding. Respond completely and on time.

Should I wait for rates to improve before filing?
Waiting carries its own cost. Your priority date is set when you file, and a rising backlog pushes everyone further back. The better question is whether your petition is ready, not whether the quarter is.

If you are deciding whether to file, or you want a second opinion on a petition you have already prepared, we are happy to look at your record and give you a candid read. No firm can guarantee an outcome, but a clear assessment up front can save months.

Schedule a consultation today.
Keller Law Group, LLC
Phone: (857) 810-8040
Email: info@kellerimmigration.com

Attorney Advertising. This post is published by Keller Law Group, Worcester, Massachusetts. Attorney responsible for content: David A. Keller, Esq. It provides general information only and is not legal advice. Reading it, or contacting us through this site, does not create an attorney-client relationship. Immigration rules, fees, and processing data change often, and the information here may not reflect the most current developments. Prior results do not guarantee a similar outcome. For advice about your situation, consult a qualified attorney.